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Strategic Scenario Planning for December 2019 Context
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Scenario Planning Methodology
Define the critical strategic question that keeps decision-makers awake at night. This should be genuinely uncertain and have significant impact on the organization's future.
Use the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) to identify forces that will shape the future. Assess both importance and uncertainty.
Select the two most critical uncertainties to create a 2x2 scenario matrix. Each quadrant represents a distinct possible future.
Develop rich narratives for each scenario, including how the world would look, key actors, and early warning indicators.
Determine robust strategies that work across all scenarios, contingent strategies for specific futures, and establish an early warning system.